SCB EIC cuts GDP this year to 1.9% growth. Covids drive consumption and tourism.

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Mr. Yanyong Thaicharoen, Executive Vice President The Chief Executive of the Economic Intelligence Center of Siam Commercial Bank (SCB EIC) said that the SCB EIC has lowered its forecast for Thailand's ทางเข้าslotxo economic growth (GDP) in the year '64 to a 1.9% expansion from the previous estimate that it would expand 2. % affected by the third wave of Covid-19 epidemic in the country, which is expected to take about 4 months (April-July 64) to contain the outbreak, resulting in private consumption In particular, face-to-face economic activities were greatly reduced due to the measures to control the spread of COVID-19. And people began to be more careful in spending money coupled with relatively weak purchasing power from lower incomes of the people Consequently, domestic consumption is still a factor that depresses the recovery of the Thai economy.

Meanwhile, the tourism sector is still another major factor that heavily pressures the Thai economy. From the number of foreign tourists in 64 that is likely to fall to 400,000 from the previous forecast of 1.5 million, despite the government's plans to open the country in the second half of this year. But because most countries are still cautious in allowing people to travel abroad due to concerns about COVID-19 New species This makes it more likely to worsen the scar on business and labor, especially in the tourism sector and related businesses.

However, the Thai economy still has a strong support from the expanding export economy. From the developed countries to open the city again In both the US and Europe After the vaccination was accelerated Cause group immunity causing the spread of COVID-19 In those countries it began to ease. As a result, international trading activities have greatly recovered. As a result, the export sector has benefited. And growing more than expected, SCB EIC revised its forecast for the year '64 exports to grow to 15% from 8.6%, which is the main driver to support the Thai economy to remain positive this year.


Although the export sector has recovered well. But private investment has not recovered much. This was partly due to the private sector being cautious about investment. and still not sure of the direction of the economy Especially business groups related to the residential and commercial real estate sectors such as investment in condominium project development. and investment in hotels, etc., which are affected by the slowdown in domestic purchasing power. and the lost tourism sector It is seen that it will take a longer period of time for the private sector to become more confident and start to invest more.

In addition, the Thai economy may have some hope of stimulating the government's economy in the second half of the year, still need to monitor how money will be injected to stimulate the economy. Whereas government assistance measures, from the amount of 240 billion baht under the 1 trillion baht loan decree, is expected to be fully used during the remainder of this year and the budget from the Royal Decree Borrowing 500 billion baht, which is new, is expected to use some capital around 100 billion baht to help support the economy more this year. SCB EIC sees that in addition to measures to stimulate consumption Money must be used to help the SME sector in enhancing their capacity and employment. to help add more purchasing power into the system

The current decline in purchasing power is partly due to the continuing trend of unemployment. Especially in the period after the third wave of the Covid-19 epidemic, the unemployment rate will increase from March. 64 at 1.96% more, and negative new employment during the Epidemic 3 led to a decline in household income. And the household sector is also subject to spending restrictions due to the high level of household debt. It is expected that household debt in 1Q21 will rise to 91% from 4Q20 of 89.3% and view the full year at 88-90%, but still a very high level. The purchasing power in the country is very limited. And it is a factor that greatly depresses the recovery of the Thai economy.


“Overall, the Thai economy will continue to recover slowly. The economy will have to wait until the beginning of '66 to return to the level of GDP before the Covid-19 outbreak. It also faces significant low risk factors. both the time to control the outbreak that may be longer and delays in vaccination May cause a weak economic recovery and further delay. It also hopes to accelerate the vaccination process to help build confidence and restore the economy in the short term, along with pushing for economic restructuring measures to support the New Normal, which is crucial in reducing the size of the permanent economic damage of The Thai economy is deeply scarred.”